Gold price – midterm election year and seasonality

In addition to the well-known factors that affect the gold price, there is also seasonality and the phenomenon of midterm election years.

Advertisement/Advertising – This article is distributed on behalf of Fury Gold Mines Ltd. and Osisko Development Corp., with whom SRC swiss resource capital AG has paid IR advisory agreements. Creator: SRC swiss resource capital AG · Author: Ingrid Heinritzi · First published: February 10, 2026, 4:05 p.m. Zurich/Berlin

In midterm election years, the price of gold usually rises, and 2026 is a so-called midterm election year in the US. These "midterm years" always take place between two election years. In 2026, among other things, part of the Senate and the members of the House of Representatives will be re-elected. During this period, the price of gold usually rises as its appeal as a safe haven increases. However, stronger corrections are also possible.

When considering whether the price of gold will rise, the four-year cycle for the US stock market (election cycle) is also observed. Since 1969, the price of gold has risen by an average of 3.47 percent in a presidential election year. In the years that followed, the increase was 5.11 percent, but in midterm election years it was as high as 12.59 percent. Incidentally, in pre-election years, the price of the precious metal rose by an average of 9.68 percent. However, the best result is delivered by the midterm election year.

In midterm election years, the price of gold usually rises until April. In May and June, it then falls, and in the second half of the year, the price shows strength again. The fluctuations are thus more pronounced in midterm election years than in normal annual seasonality, which also still exists. On average, normal annual seasonality results in an increase of 8.74 percent, which is less than in midterm years. The current midterm election year could therefore present an interesting opportunity for gold investors.

Fury Gold Mines – https://www.commodity-tv.com/ondemand/companies/profil/fury-gold-mines-ltd/ -, which is well financed, has a gold and mineral exploration portfolio totaling over 157,000 hectares in Québec. The company also owns 11.3 million common shares of Dolly Varden Silver Corp.

Osisko Development – https://www.commodity-tv.com/ondemand/companies/profil/osisko-development-corp/ – owns, among other things, the flagship Cariboo Gold project (Canada, 100 percent). Production at Cariboo (approximately 190,000 ounces of gold per year over ten years) is scheduled to start in 2027. A 70,000-meter drilling program is underway at Cariboo to investigate potential resource growth.

Current company information and press releases from Fury Gold Mines (- https://www.resource-capital.ch/en/companies/fury-gold-mines-ltd/ -) and Osisko Development (- https://www.resource-capital.ch/en/companies/osisko-development-corp/ -).

Further information is also available in our new precious metals report at the following link:  https://www.resource-capital.ch/en/reports/view/precious-metals-report-2025-11-update/

Sources:

https://www.seasonax.com/de/gold-4-jahres-zyklus-saisonalitaet-zwischenwahljahre/;

https://www.resource-capital.ch/en/reports/view/precious-metals-report-2025-11-update/

In accordance with Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) in conjunction with Article 20 of Regulation (EU) 2016/958 (MAR), we hereby disclose that authors/employees/affiliated companies of SRC swiss resource capital AG may hold positions (long/short) in issuers discussed. Remuneration/relationship: IR contracts/advertorial: Own positions (author): none; SRC net position: less than 0.5%; issuer’s stake in SRC ≥ 5%: no. Update policy: no obligation to update. No guarantee for the translation into German. Only the English version of this news release is authoritative.

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